China, Northeast Asia’s main travel influencer, reasserted its dominance in 2024 following a tepid 12-month period since the reopening of its borders in 2023. South Korea, Hong Kong, and Macau saw a boost in visitor economies, but Taiwan was not as affected. In September, China and South Korea set a shared target of 40 million inbound visitors by 2030. In November, China simplified the “cross-boundary”, travel measures in order to expedite border clearances between the mainland, Hong Kong, and Macau.
Airlines reactivated routes that had been dormant and launched new destinations in the region. The hotel industry performed better than it has in any previous year, but the downward pressure on prices remains. Rail and car rental bookings have benefited from the growing trend of experiential travel by both inbound and domestic travelers.
The four markets are still looking over their shoulders. The dynamic expansion of travel and touristic activities over the past decade means that 2019 is still the benchmark against which all travel metrics will be evaluated. This is particularly true of annual arrivals. It’s the metric that governments care about most.
Hong Kong is better off looking at 2018 due to the street demonstrations that paralyzed much of 2019 in the city. Travel and aviation is a multiplier for the economy, so governments are going to continue to play an important role in trying to boost inbound tourism in Hong Kong and Macau, as well as domestic and inbound tourism in South Korea.
In 2024, it became apparent that the pace of the recovery was slowing. The region is now preparing for a set of complex regional and global geoeconomic challenges in 2025.
2023 will be remembered by history as statistically abnormal. Phocuswright’s Northeast Asia Travel Market Report for 2023-2027 shows that from a COVID-era low base, gross bookings soared by 116% and reached $44.6 billion. This was a unique situation, and although gross travel bookings will grow by 15% in 2024 to reach $51.3billion, the annual growth rate will moderate to $60.3billion in 2027.
Northeast Asia’s booking path is online. Travel will continue to be reshaped by new demand, demographics and strategic dynamics over the next decade. The slump to recovery period will be transformed into a stepped growth in gross bookings until 2027.
Travel booking tools that use AI and smart-tech are accelerating the shift to e-commerce. Online gross bookings regained speed once borders were reopened, and have since surpassed the $15.6 billion mark in 2019 with $21.3 in 2023. By 2026 they are projected to break the $30 billion barrier when 57% of bookings will be made online. This may be an underestimate if the AI revolution has a dramatic effect on travel bookings in a region known for its rapid adoption of consumer technology.
