According to industry insiders in the UK, Heathrow expansion plans were backed by Britain. Rachel Reeves, British finance minister, announced that despite opposition from some Labour MPs and environmentalists, the government was in favor of a third runway for the major international airport.
It would be an unusual expansion in Europe where countries are torn over whether to reduce greenhouse gases or to meet the growing demand for a strategic sector.
Boeing and Airbus, as well as the airline industry group International Air Transport Association (IATA), expect that the number air travellers will double in the next twenty-five years to 10 billion.
Asia will be the main driving force behind this growth, but Europe’s passenger numbers are expected to increase by 2.3 per cent per year over the next twenty years. This will add 656 million travellers in 2043.
Environmental groups warn that a reduction in air travel could help Europe achieve its goal of zero emissions by 2050.
Rising air traffic could cancel out the benefits of transitioning to sustainable aviation fuels, with European aviation emissions in 2049 potentially matching 2019 levels, according to a study by Transport & Environment (T&E) advocacy group.
“The growth plans of the aviation industry are in complete contradiction with Europe’s climate goals and do not address the scale of the climate crisis,” said Jerome du Boucher, an aviation manager at T&E’s French branch.
Few European hubs have announced their expansions while measures are being taken to encourage a reduction in air travel. France abandoned plans to extend Paris Charles-de-Gaulle Airport to 2021 and is now increasing aviation taxes, after banning short-haul flights within the country where trains are available for trips less than 2.5 hours.
In the Netherlands, authorities are planning to cap annual flights in Amsterdam Schiphol Airport to reduce noise pollution. A similar measure is expected to be implemented in Brussels by 2032.
ADP, the operator of Paris-Orly Airport, where flight numbers have already been capped, expects to see a 16 percent increase between 2023 and 2030 in passenger numbers, thanks to larger and more efficient aircraft, rather than more flights.
Other major infrastructure projects are also underway, particularly in sun-drenched destinations popular with low cost airlines.
Lisbon’s airport will be expanded by Heraklion in Crete. Industry leaders are concerned that Europe’s airports will be too crowded in the future, as they already struggle with a saturated air traffic.
“The European continent already has half of the world’s busiest airports. There is no doubt we will be facing an airport capacity crisis in the next decade,” said Olivier Jankovec.
“Developing airport capacity has become increasingly difficult in many European countries – due to a lack of political support,” he told AFP.
Eurocontrol, Europe’s air-traffic management body, estimates by 2030 that one percent of passenger demands will not be met due to inadequate airport infrastructure.
Willie Walsh IATA Director General said in December: “It is clear that the airport infrastructure, especially in Europe, is not keeping up with the projected increase that we see.”
He said:
“That is different from what we have seen in the Asia-Pacific Region.”
New mega-airports that can handle 100 to200 million passengers per year are being built or opened in Riyadh, Dubai, and Istanbul.
India has doubled the number of airports it has in the last decade, to 157. It plans to have 400 by 2047. Jankovec warned, failing to increase airport capacity in order to meet demand would “come at a high cost to Europe’s economy, its competition and also its global position”.
