With US tourists representing the second highest international tourism spend globally – $158.7 billion USD in 2023 according to Statista— trailing only Chinese travellers, understanding their travel intentions and emerging trends is of huge economic importance to destinations worldwide. Accurately predicting these trends allows destinations optimise their marketing strategies and infrastructure, as well as resource allocation, to capitalise and mitigate potential downturns.
In order to meet this need, ForwardKeys, a leader in travel intelligence, has developed an innovative 12-month forecast. It was launched in February, as part of Destination Gateway, its solution. Their accurate forecast, based on the company’s proprietary Total Air Market formula, now includes low-cost carriers. This information is not normally shared by airlines. This provides a detailed, comprehensive picture of air travel for the year to come, which allows users to predict demand and anticipate evolving travel trends.
Applying the tool to focus on US outbound travel to Europe for Summer 2025 reveals some interesting shifts in travel behaviour — with implications for those destinations relying on transatlantic visitors to boost local economies.
No change in the top four choices of US tourists
According to ForwardKeys’ analysis, the top four destinations from summer 2024 – London, Paris, Rome, and Dublin – are projected to remain the most popular choices for US travellers in 2025.
However, the ranking fluctuation among European destinations is more pronounced beyond the top tier.
City breaks: shifting preferences
Berlin and Porto are each expected to climb three spots, driven by forecast growth of 8% and 9% respectively. Further down the list, Bilbao and Faro will see significant growth, forecast to climb 6 and 15 positions respectively.
The decline in US travel to former favorites
While London remains popular with transatlantic visitors, the city is projected to experience a 2% decline in visitor numbers compared to last year. Reykjavik is also expected to see a 12% decline in US arrivals, despite Icelandair’s popular stopover program.
Nordic countries to welcome more US tourists
Helsinki (+16%) and Copenhagen (+3%) are predicted to attract more US tourists this summer, potentially due to increased competition and improved long-haul connectivity. Notably the direct flight capacity between US and Helsinki has increased by 59%, which highlights growing demand. After the invasion of Ukraine, and the inability for Finnish carriers to fly above Russia, the pivot was made westward.
Understanding the changing travel preferences of US tourists will help destinations optimize their strategy. While traditional favourites such as London, Paris and Rome remain strong we’re also seeing notable shifts. For example, the demand for Nordic and secondary European Cities is increasing.
Our latest forecasting capabilities allow destinations to anticipate these trends more precisely, allowing them the opportunity to adapt their marketing, connectivity and infrastructure plans in order to capture opportunities and mitigate any potential slowdowns.
